The curious case of Fred McGriff, milestones and the Hall of Fame

Why should seven home runs matter.
It would seem, arbitrarily, that seven home runs are all that separates Fred McGriff from induction into the Hall of Fame.
In other words, if he stuck around for an extra season and hit .230 and slugged seven home runs in 70 games as a platoon player, he’d gain induction into Cooperstown?
Seems a bit absurd don’t you think?
Sure, we want the Hall of Fame to be exclusive. But are the seven home runs between 493 and 500 what makes a player a Hall of Famer? Or were the first 493 what did the job?
Let’s look at Fred McGriff’s career and find out why he hasn’t gained more support for induction.

Accomplishments

McGriff hit 493 home runs, drove in 1,550 runs and had .284/.377/.509 slash line.
He was a five-time All-Star who won one World Series ring and batted .303/.385/.532 with 10 homers in 50 postseason games.
His Hall of Fame monitor number is 100, right on the average of what Bill James says makes a Hall of Famer. (If he had hit those extra seven home runs, his number would be 120)
His JAWS numbers put him as the 27th best first baseman of all time. That’s slightly below inductees Jake Beckley and Tony Perez and ahead of Orlando Cepeda, Frank Chance, Jim Bottomley and High Pockets Kelly. It can be argued that Bottomley, Chance and Kelly don’t belong in Cooperstown.
Here is a fun fact about McGriff’s consistent career.
He is one of 15 players with 15 or more consecutive seasons of 20 home runs. The only players in that group not inducted in the Hall of Fame are Ken Griffey Jr., McGriff, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Jim Thome. We know A-Rod and Bonds got a little help. Griffey and Thome should sail into Cooperstown.

Arguements against induction

Any player like McGriff, who warrants serious consideration for induction but isn’t one of those individuals like Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Tom Seaver who sails in with better than 90 percent of the vote, faces arguments against induction.
Let’s look at those arguments, some of which are worthwhile, others of which are simple bunk.

“He doesn’t pass the sniff test”

This is clearly the most absurd reason to vote for or against a player. It goes along with the “It’s not the Hall of Very Good” argument.
“Very good” and “elite” or “premiere” are vague, subjective terms.
The “Sniff test” and “Hall of Very Good” are usually arguments made by people who haven’t studied the game’s history or done their homework in comparing players of an era.

He didn’t get 500 home runs

This is the second most absurd argument against a slugger.
Let’s look at the historical record.
There are 30 players with 475 home runs. With one exception, very one of them who is not connected to performance-enhancing drugs is in the Hall of Fame. The exception is McGriff.
Now, consider this:
In baseball history, the list of players with 475 home runs and a .375 on-base percentage includes just 21 men: Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome, Frank Robinson, Mark McGwire, Harmon Killebrew, Manny Ramirez, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle, Jimmy Foxx, Frank Thomas, Ted Williams, Eddie Mathews, Mel Ott, Gary Sheffield, Lou Gerhig, McGriff, Albert Pujols and Stan Musial.
When you take out the PED-tainted stars, that list is even more exclusive: Just 16 men. It’s a more exclusive group than the 500-home run club.
All but Thome – who is yet to be eligible – and McGriff are in the Hall of Fame.

But he never was the best player on his own team

This is actually untrue. It’s not even close to true.
Well, if we’re talking about position players. Yes, Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz were the best players on some of those mid-90s Braves squads, but McGriff was up their.
Either way it doesn’t matter, because he was still the best player on the …
… 1988 Blue Jays, leading the team in home runs, walks, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR. He batted .282/.376/.552 with 34 home runs and 100 runs scored
… 1989 Blue Jays, leading the team in home runs, walks, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR.
… 1990 Blue Jays, leading the team in home runs, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR.
… 1991 Padres, leading the team in home runs, runs scored, runs batted in, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR.
… 1998 Rays, leading the team in home runs, runs batted in, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
… 1999 Rays, leading the team in hits, doubles, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR
He was also the best position player on the Braves in 1994.

But he never won an MVP

Neither will Derek Jeter.
The list of Hall of Famers without MVPs is, at the very least, and interesting one. But let’s dig deeper on McGriff and the MVP issue. Which makes this interesting.
Not only did McGriff never win an MVP, he never finished second or third in the voting. He topped out at fourth in 1993 and had six top 10 finishes in his career.
That’s hardly the resume of an immortal, right?
Not necessarily.
Part of the reason he never got more recognition, especially in the 1993-2000 years, was that a lot of his competition were doing things off the field he seemingly wasn’t.
Some of the standouts who never took home MVP hardware include Dave Winfield, Eddie Murray, Eddie Mathews, Lou Brock, Rod Carew, Duke Snider and Ozzie Smith.
Does anyone really think any of those players don’t belong in the Hall of Famer?
Tony Gwynn came in third once and, like McGriff, had just six top 10 seasons.
Carlton Fisk finished third once, fourth another year and in the top 10 four times total.
Wade Boggs topped out at fourth as well, and only four times was in the top 10.
Billy Williams made the top 10 just three times.
Roberto Alomar finished third once, fourth once and sixth three times.
None of the previous four guys are borderline candidates. All were easy decisions to enshrine.
It just goes to show that excellence sometimes goes unappreciated.

But he never had a breakout season

So, in 1989, when he led the league in home runs and on-base percentage, finished second in walks and slugging and fourth in runs batted in, he wasn’t dominant?
Remember, in baseball, consistency matters. Especially when it comes to hitters and the Hall of Fame.
Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth’s home run record in 1961, winning his second straight MVP. But he never made it to Cooperstown. Part of the reason is that he didn’t have several strong seasons.
Some players – like Eddie Murray and Al Kaline – never have breakout seasons, but still make it to the Hall of Fame.
Some argue that McGriff doesn’t belong because he was a power-hitting first baseman who never had big RBI numbers.
First, most fans now understand that an RBI is a team-related stat. It’s not something McGriff could completely control.
Consider Mickey Mantle. Power hitter. Played for winning teams. He had four 100-RBI seasons to his name.
But let’s say you care about RBIs as a barometer.
McGriff’s 162 game average was 102.
Other slugger’s from the 1970s-2000s: Mike Schmidt (107); Dave Winfield (100); Reggie Jackson (98); Andre Dawson (98), Kirby Puckett (99)
The Crime Dog also had more 100-RBI seasons than all of these Hall of Fame sluggers.
Thome, meanwhile had one more 100-RBI season and averaged 108 runs batted in. Thomas had 11 100-RBI seasons and averaged 119 in 162 games.

But he wasn’t the best player at his position

Here’s where it gets tricky and a point can be made.
McGriff might have been the best first baseman in a single season in one league (1989 in the AL or 1992 in the NL), but because of Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell, he was never the best at the position for a long period of time. Yes, Thomas and Thome should be enshrined quickly, but this isn’t a case of either or.
Remember, five center fielders from the 1950s – Richie Ashburn, Larry Doby, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Duke Snider – are in Cooperstown. That means almost 33 percent of the regular center fielders are in Cooperstown.
So if the reason against voting for him is that he wasn’t the unquestioned best at his position for a long period of time, that is hard to argue.
Well, except that Duke Snider wasn’t the best at his position for an extended period of time. Nor was Willie Stargell. Or, well, you get the point.

The caveat

One of the things that most likely harm’s McGriff’s career isn’t falling seven home runs short of 500.
It’s that he played for so many teams without having one team seem to be his dominant one. Sure, we might associate him with the Braves, but his best years were in Toronto, with another excellent year in San Diego, another in Atlanta and two in Tampa Bay.
You have to wonder if he had spent his career with just three teams, instead of six, would he already be enshrined.
Update
I’ve made a decision to use Bill James’ Keltner List with each potential Hall of Famer we profile.
So here it goes.
1. Was he ever the best active baseball player?
No.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
Yes. Clearly on some of the Blue Jays teams.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? In his league at his position?
Yes. I think he was at first base in the American League in at least one of his Jays seasons, as well as one or two of his Braves seasons.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Yes. Clearly was the driving force in the Braves overcoming the Giants in 1993 and had other good years for division winners.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play after his prime.
He did.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No. Even if you don’t include the steroid guys
7. Are most players who have comparable stats in the Hall of Fame?
His ten comparables: Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Carlos Delgado, Paul Konerko, Billy Williams, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Andres Galarraga.
So, his two closest are in, his fourth and seventh are also in. It’s likely that Bagwell will be in.
8. Do the players numbers meet Hall of Fame standards.
His gray ink? No. His black ink? No. Hall of Fame monitor? Yes. Hall of Fame standards? Yes. JAWS? Only four guys in front of him – Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, Jason Giambi and Will Clark won’t be in, several guys after him Are.
9. Is there any evidence he was better or worse than his numbers suggest?
No.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible but is not inducted? No.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Three or four.
12. How many All Star-type seasons did he have? Ten to 12. Most of the other players at that level are in the Hall of Fame.
13. If he were the best player on his team, could it win a pennant?
Yes?
14. What impact did he have on baseball history as far as rule changes, equipment, and the way the game is played?
None?
15. Did he uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that are listed in the Hall of Fame’s guidelines?
Yes.