Let’s talk about closers.
Who are the greatest of all time?
Well the discussion starts with five people: Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dennis Eckersley, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.
We all know how dominant Rivera was, thanks to him being the most recent of the bunch. His career compares pretty well with Sandy Koufax’ five year run of dominance. In Koufax’ final five years, he tossed 1,377 innings with a 1.95 ERA, a 2.00 FIP, 9.4 strikeouts per nine, 4.57 Ks per walk and a .926 WHIP. Rivera’s career was 1,283 innings pitched, a 2.21 ERA, a 2.76 FIP, 8.2 Ks per nine and 4.10 strikeouts per walk with a 1.000 WHIP.
Sure the numbers were acquired through different means in different eras, but it’s a fair comparison of statistics.
Eckersley was a former All Star and 20-game winner who turned into an MVP and Cy Young-winning closer.
Gossage was a fireballer who had a 10-year run that was nearly unhittable, with him giving up 6.8 hits per nine innings and
Hoffman, once held the all-time saves record and was a seven-time All-Star.
Wilhelm is the JAWS leader in relief pitchers. He pitched back in the day, when relievers threw more than an inning. He won two ERA titles.
One closer, who happens to be criminally underrated, could also slip into that group: Dan Quisenberry.
A five time Rolaids Relief Award winner, only Mariano Rivera won more.
The Kansas City Royals relief ace finished in the top ten in MVP voting six times and top five in Cy Young voting five times.
Let’s put that in perspective.
Rivera finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six times, top five in Cy Young voting five times. Eckersley earned top 10 in MVP voting four times as a reliever (and two other times as a starter). He finished in the top five in Cy Young votes three times as a reliever (once as a starter). Gossage did both five times.
Wilhelm never finished in the top five in Cy Young voting. As a rookie he finished fourth in MVP voting, the only time he cracked the top 10.
Hoffman had four seasons in which he cracked the top five in Cy Young voting and twice in the top 10 for MVP.
When he compiled his list of the 100 best pitchers of all time in 2001, baseball historian Bill James put Quiz at 61, saying, “There has never been a pitcher who made fewer mistakes than Dan Quisenberry.
The Keltner Test
HallofFameDebate been using Bill James’ Keltner List with each potential Hall of Famer we profile. (Here are Fred McGriff, Derek Jeter and Bobby Abeu, for example)
So here it goes.
1. Was he ever the best active baseball player?
No.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
It’s hard to imagine a closer who might participate in less than .05 percent of his team’s innings, being the best player on a team. But most valuable is possible. In 1983, he led his team in WAR.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? In his league at his position?
Yes. It’s hard to argue that anyone was a better American League closer every year from 1982 to 1985. The Cardinals’ Bruce Sutter was better in 1985. So Quiz was the best in the biz for three years and the best in his league another year.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Yes. He was the dominant reliever on the 1985 World Series-winning Royals and and the franchise’s reliable ace on another pennant winner and two other teams that made the postseason.
One could argue he was the missing piece for a franchise that had won three division titles but no postseason series.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play after his prime.
No. The submariner’s prime was certainly impressive. From 1979 to 1987, he averaged 99 innings a season and a ridiculously stingy 1.3 walks and .5 home runs per 9 innings. But he dropped off drastically after that and was out of baseball by 1990.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No.
7. Are most players who have comparable stats in the Hall of Fame?
His ten comparables, according to baseball-reference:
1. Dave Smith – No.
2. Todd Worrell – No.
3. Huston Street – No.
4. Mike Henneman – No.
5. Bob Locker – No.
6. John Wetteland – No.
7. Bruce Sutter – Yes.
8. Rob Nen – No.
9. Tom Henke – No.
10. Rod Beck – No.
So, most of them aren’t. But his skillset is interesting. Let’s look at the three things pitchers are supposedly only able to control. He didn’t strike out anyone, getting under four whiffs per nine innings. But he really didn’t walk anyone. His walks per nine (1.3974) is comparable to several Hall of Famers. Of the 10 guys in front of him, three have plaques in Cooperstown. Of the 10 guys behind him, four are in, including Cy Young and Christy Mathewson.
And here’s the crazy stat. He gave up fewer walks per nine innings than any pitcher who’s career started in the live-ball era.
Now, let’s look at home runs allowed.
He gave up .50 per nine innings. That’s better than Goose Gossage, Billy Wagner, Rollie Fingers, Trevor Hoffman and Bruce Sutter.
In other words, he dominated two areas that he could control more than anyone in his position.
8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards.
None of his black ink, gray ink or Hall of Fame monitor or Hall of Fame Standards hit the traditional barometers.
9. Is there any evidence he was better or worse than his numbers suggest?
Well, he didn’t pitch long, so he never hit the 300 save mark, but he led the league in saves five times and also pitched more than 100 innings five times.
Sutter and Gossage pitched in the same era. Sutter also led the league in saves five times and pitched 100 innings five times. Gossage led the league in saves three times and pitched 100 innings four times as a reliever. So, despite not having the career totals, he seems to have been as dominant as the two pitchers from his era in his position who are in the Hall of Fame.
He is the 19th best relief pitcher, according to JAWS. A few pitchers ahead of him, benefit from years spent as starters. He’s ahead of Bruce Sutter and Trevor Hoffman.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible but is not inducted? No. But it’s conceivable that, in a few years, he could be.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Five.
12. How many All Star-type seasons did he have? Seven
13. If he were the best player on his team, could it win a pennant?
It’s hard to say that about a closer.
14. What impact did he have on baseball history as far as rule changes, equipment, and the way the game is played?
Quisenberry was part of an era that saw a transition from relief ace to closer. Along with Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers and Jeff Reardon, he was the in the group of trendsetter.
15. Did he uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that are listed in the Hall of Fame’s guidelines?
Yes.
Conclusion
Quisenberry might be the most borderline Hall of Famer in history. Being in or out isn’t a great sin.
Personally, I’d lean toward putting him in. It appears that what really is keeping him out is a lack of strikeouts. But he was so stingy when it comes to walks and home runs, two of the supposedly only three stats a pitcher can control, that you have to come to the conclusion that he was a dominant pitcher. Amazingly, he got less than 5 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot, and was summarily dropped.
But whether or not he belongs in the Hall of Fame, that’s a much harder conclusion to make.
Call to the 'pen 